Will electric vehicles reduce pollution? Data driven thinking in the Indian context

This article is not from my area of expertise but from my area of interest. 

To clear the context for my readers, I am not trying to calculate the carbon footprint from the production of IC engine vehicles or their electric counterparts. I am just trying to understand if using electric cars will reduce pollution in my country. For ease of comparison, I will use Nexon EV and its IC engine counterpart which uses petrol as fuel.

Electric vehicles, similar to your mobile phones run on electricity stored in batteries. If they have to be clean, then it is very important that the source of your electricity is clean. The current pool of grid electricity in India consists predominantly of electricity produced from coal-fired power plants. According to sources from the ministry of power website, out of the installed capacity in India, 58.5% of installed power generation capacity is fossil fuel-based (of which coal-based power plants alone contributes to 50.7% of the total installed capacity including renewables)

Ref - https://powermin.gov.in/en/content/power-sector-glance-all-india

https://npp.gov.in/dashBoard/cp-map-dashboard

So what is the carbon footprint of each kW of power generated in India? I tried to search, but couldn't find the accurate details. So I decided to go with the details available for another country - the USA, with a small assumption that each fossil fuel will generate the same quantity of carbon footprint for an equal quantity of power generated. 

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=74&t=11#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20total%20U.S.%20electricity,CO2%20emissions%20per%20kWh.

From EIA data, it is evident that every kW of electrical power generated in the US amounted to 0.85 pounds of CO2 generation considering the entire pool of power generation sources in the US in 2020. Coal-based power plants generated 2.23 pounds (1.01kg) of CO2 for every kW of power generated.

Based on the earlier assumptions if we try to calculate the same for India, it will amount like 

So for the current mix of sources, for every kW of power generated in India, 1.225 pounds of CO2 is being generated.

According to data for India, transmission and distribution losses account for about 20% of the total electricity generated. This simply means, that if 1 unit has to reach the end user, 1.25 units have to be generated

Ref - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/power/economic-survey-flags-high-td-losses-in-power-sector/articleshow/80585965.cms?from=mdr

How much do I emit while charging my EV?

For 1kW of power used à 1.25 kW of Power produced à 1.25* 1.225 = 1.53125 pounds of CO2  per KW of power à 0.7 kg of CO2 generated per kW.

Now as per data, on average 10% of power is wasted while charging an EV battery.

Ref - https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv-ev.shtml

Hence for charging from 0 to 40.5kW, the power consumption from grid = 40.5/0.9 = 45 kW of power consumed. 

So total CO2 generated = 45*0.7 = 31.5 kg of CO2 generated per full charge, ie. for running 437km (As per ARAI).

Now coming to the petrol version of the same vehicle, 

(Upstream emissions are the GHGs associated with the production and distribution of gasoline and electricity are not considered in the calculations.)

Vehicle tailpipe emissions are the GHGs your car produces when driving.

As per data from EPA, 

CO2 Emissions from a gallon of gasoline: 8,887 grams CO2/ gallon

CO2 Emissions from a gallon of diesel: 10,180 grams CO2/ gallon

Ref - https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/greenhouse-gas-emissions-typical-passenger-vehicle#burning

Converting it to litres –

CO2 Emissions from a litre of gasoline: 2,348 grams CO2/ litre

CO2 Emissions from a litre of diesel: 2,689 grams CO2/ litre

 

If Tata Nexon takes 40.5kW to take you 437km (ARAI figures) you are generating 31.5 kg of CO2

If Tata Nexon petrol with a mileage of 17.5 kmpl (ARAI figures) you are generating 58.633 kg of CO2

Other ref: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/label/calculations-information.shtml

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?year=2022&vehicleId=44444&zipCode=07821&action=bt3

 

Tail-end - With the current pool of power generation in India, the carbon footprint in running a petrol vehicle is at least 1.5 times that of electric vehicles. The gap is posed to widen as India moves to adopt more of renewable energy sources for the generation of power. Moreover, the pollution from power generation happens from point sources that are easily under the scanner of regulatory authorities and also located far off from population centers. So in order to save our cities, I don't think we have any option other than faster adoption of electric vehicles.